Thursday, 20 August 2015

The US market is in trouble

It was a pretty exciting ride in the market today, with the sp' falling to sp'2070.. a crazy bounce to 2096... and settling -17pts @ 2079. The setup for the equity bears is increasingly good, with the VIX finally able to hold above old resistance, and US bonds pushing back upward.

VIX' weekly2

TLT, weekly



It has been a somewhat tiring day.. so this will be short.

The VIX has finally managed a daily close decisively above old resistance of the mid 14s. The 17/18s look due in the near term.

TLT - US bonds are continuing to broadly rise, and that is certainly one valid bearish equity signal. The 126s look a valid target in the near term. 130s in September.

The sp'500 is flashing a red candle this week, a break to the 2050/40s looks due by end month. More severe downside looks due in September, as the sp'500 looks set to lose the giant psy' level of 2000.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see the usual jobs, phil fed', existing home sales, and leading indicators.

Goodnight from London