Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Pre-Market Brief - PBOC act

Good morning. Futures are screaming higher, and the PBOC have acted (rate cut, bank res' req'), sp +55pts, we're set to open at 1948. USD is bouncing, +0.7% in the DXY 94.00s. Metals are weak, Gold -$3, whilst Oil is soaring, +3.8%, but still only in the $39s.




*PBOC cut rates around 6.10am EST, by 25bps, and loosened the bank reserve requirement ratio by 50bps.

Although it is important to note that US equities were already significantly higher before the news.

We have clarity.

A marginal higher low.. yesterday afternoon... and now we're going to see some days of upside... back above the sp'2000 threshold.

Best guess... a move to the 2040/50 zone.. with VIX getting cut in half to around 20.

The highest the bull maniacs can likely drive this is 2070... along with VIX in the mid teens.

early movers

AAPL +6% @ 106
DIS +3% @ 98
NFLX +75 @ 104

Overnight Asia markets...

Japan - Nikkei, -4.0% @ 17806

China - Shanghai comp': -7.6% @ 2964.  This close was before the PBOC acted... but regardless, with the loss of 3K.... the door is now wide open to 2500.. a level I've considered since the June top in the 5100s.


Plan for today?

Well. shorts are absolutely off the menu. I suppose I could pick up a small long position... on any intraday down wave... and would be content to hold overnight... for a few days.

The bigger issue though is of shorting the next bounce - with confidence, as the bigger weekly/monthly cycles are BROKEN. Regardless of this bounce.... equity bears remain in control.

Eyes on the prize.
Have a good Tuesday.

7.59am sp +56pts... @ 1949

meanwhile... more nonsense comments...

8.53am  sp +50pts... so..  thats 1943... will take some days just to test the 2000 threshold.

Watching the Cramer talk about the 'Chinese clowns'.. the irony.

Ohh... APPL is stock is higher today, I guess no need for another letter from Tim Cook to Cramer today? All is well in cheerleader land today.

9.38am Opening gains.... I'd look for an intraday pull back from 10/11am... into 1/2pm.

Bigger hourly/daily charts are offering a multi-day rally.. that could last into next week.

*opening black-fail candle in AAPL.... a retrace to 106/105 looks probable.  I might go moderately long at that level.