Monday, 24 August 2015

9am update - crash mode

US equities are effectively in crash mode, on what has already been extremely active early trading, sp -65pts, we're set to open around 1905, having already hit 1893. VIX is set to open in the 40s.. a level not seen since Oct'2011. USD is seeing severe weakness, -1.3% in the DXY 93.80s



... it is days like this.. why I remain here posting.

I hope all of you are 'careful' out there.... some will no doubt get zeroed out today.

There can be no excuses for at least some degree of risk management.

notable early movers

VXX +21%

AAPL -6% in the 99s
BABA -9% in the 61s
NFLX -11% in the 92s
TWTR -7% in the 24s

Best guess... broad downside across much of the day. A daily close in the low 1800s remains VERY viable.. along with VIX 50s.

No doubt an equally insane bounce is due... but for now.... this train wreck might only be half way complete (low 1700s).

The clowns/cheerleaders

I have to note, I do find it especially pleasing to see the utter horror and bemusement at all those on CNBC/Bloomberg - who have been cheerleading this market higher this year.

They have increasingly been unable to cope with ANY kind of down wave this year... and with core monthly support broken...   they are indeed starting to panic.

9.11am sp -80pts..   1890

*circuit breakers kick in @ 7% decline...  1970-138pts....   1832

9.13am.  sp -84pts... 1886...  just   54pts to go until MARKET HALT

9.17am.. sp -101pts... 1869... a mere 37pts from a halt.


FLASH CRASH prints appearing ... -20% HD  

9.35am.. so far... NO VIX opening quote.

9.38am.. unquestionably... it IS crash mode...  the FLASH prints are interesting.. offering a clue of where we might close...

HD 92

9.42am.. Option spreads have EXPLODED wide....  20% typically.... effectively... untradeable.