Wednesday 12 August 2015

11am update - VIX cooling to the gap

US equities have likely floored for the day at sp'2052 - with VIX 16.28. However, there still seems high likelihood of another equity wave lower before the Friday close. The bigger weekly/monthly cycles continue to increasingly swing in favour to the bears.


VIX'60min



sp'60min


Summary

*I EXITED VIX-long and INTC-short in the previous hour.

VIX was a fine exit.. but intel has been particularly annoying lately, and I will probably leave it alone for some time.. despite a H/S target of $22.50.
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So... a morning washout.. and we're clearly seeing some considerable technical damage.

On any fair basis, the July low of sp'2044 looks a viable target.. along with VIX 17/18s...

*I will strongly consider picking up VIX again, in the 15.20/14.25 zone. The 14s do look difficult though, considering the current momentum.

What most should likely recognise, the big 20 threshold does not look viable in the current cycle.
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11.30am..  sp'2060... VIX 15.50....  on track...   target 2070/75.. with VIX 14s.

I will strongly consider picking up VIX in the 14s late today/early tomorrow... for a short term trade, with a target exit before the Friday close.