Monday, 24 August 2015

11am update - the powerful swings continue

US equities have seen a powerful hyper-ramp from sp'1869 to 1932, with VIX cooling from 53.29 to the 37s. This is an incredibly unstable market, and all things considered, sp'1869 makes little sense as a key low. The broader weekly cycle is offering 1820.. and then 1725/00 in the immediate term.

sp'15min cycle



I could highlight a thousand charts.. but for now the above two will have to suffice.

We're clearly seeing some crazy swings.. and those will likely continue for some days.

You can see this is week 2' down since the break of core support - from Oct'2011. A basic fib retrace is HIGHLY suggestive of the low 1700s before a key low might be in.

I realise 1700s sound crazy.. but then.. so did sub' 2000 a few days ago.

time to cook...   back soon

11.17am.... sp -57pts @ 1913... a daily close <1900 looks highly probable. The only issue in my view is whether we see the circuit breakers today (sp'1832).

11.26pm....  sp-60pts @ 1910.


Its just an idea.   I will consider a short-index position this afternoon, it really does depend on price action across the next 3-4 hrs.