Friday, 28 August 2015

10am update - opening weakness

US equity indexes are a little weak, with the hourly cycles offering increasing weakness into the weekly close. A 'fair' retrace of the 122pt ramp from the Tuesday close remains the sp'1940s. USD is battling to hold minor gains +0.2% in the DXY 95.80s.



The quietest open of the week, and frankly... this sort of open would generally favour the bulls.

As it is, I will stay focused on the hourly cycle, which is suggestive we'll see increasing weakness into the weekly close.

I sure don't believe it merits taking a short position, but for those wanting a more reasonable entry level to go long... it looks better to just sit back and start afresh next Monday.

Something to reflect on...

AAPL, 60min

Like the broader indexes, from a pure cyclical perspective, the hourly MACD cycle is on the high side, and is in cooling mode. At the current rate, the MACD will see a bearish cross late today.. or Monday.

I remain seeking to re-long AAPL, but unless I see the 109s.. I ain't interested, not least ahead of the weekend.

So, I'll just sit back until Monday.

stay tuned

Ohh.. and if we break new highs today.. then I'll just start the 'retrace clock'.. at whatever level we get stuck at.. which clearly.. could be the big 2000 threshold.

Way risky for anyone to be shorting this madness.. and besides.. who isn't tired after this week?

10.13am.. it remains borderline situation

15min cycle

Viable downside to around 1960 in immediate term... which would offer 1940s late today or Monday.

.. considering the daily cycles though.. it looks overly risky on the short side.