Friday, 31 July 2015

The Mighty Dow is weak

The Dow is weak, and this is increasingly apparent on the giant monthly cycle. Despite a marginal new historic high of 18351 in May, the Dow has effectively been flat lining since February. A Friday/July close under the monthly 10MA - currently @ 17733 would offer another indication of 'trouble into the early autumn'.

Dow, monthly'2

Dow, weekly'1b


A fifth consecutive blue candle on the giant monthly 'rainbow' chart... with price action looking like a flat top.

I will be looking for a monthly close <17733 at the Friday close.

As for the weekly chart, despite the current net weekly gain, we did see a break of trend on Monday, and for now... the closing weekly candle will result in a lower high.. and a lower low.

Looking ahead

Friday will see Employment cost, Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment.

*since it will be a weekly and monthly close, expect increasing vol' in the afternoon. As is generally the case, higher vol'.. will very likely equate to lower prices.

Somewhat less cautious

Today, after some further consideration, I picked up a secondary short-term trading block. I went short INTC.. which is a stock I've been bearish about since it maxed out at $35 in early June. I am increasingly seeing individual stocks with increasingly bearish price structure. As ever, I will try to trade in/out of positions as best I can, but wish to be broadly short the US market into early October.

Goodnight from London