Wednesday, 29 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 2098. From a pure cyclical perspective, equities will be particularly vulnerable later today and into early Thursday. With the USD broadly flat, metals and Oil are similarly u/c.




Well, its Fed day... again.

Expect a lot of minor chop into the afternoon. Then.. some swings... and then the market is going to pick a direction... and likely stay with it into next week.

There is key GDP data tomorrow morning.. so that will be an issue... but still... equity bears should be somewhat desperate for a net daily decline today... even a moderate one.

*I am long-VIX. I can imagine the 12s will be hit (if briefly) today.. which won't be so great... I'd sure like to see a daily close at least in the 14s.. if not the 15s.

notable early movers..

TWTR -9% in the $33s. An ugly reversal from the AH high of $40.90. It would seem that acting CEO Dorsey can really upset the market with each word he mutters.

YELP -20%.. post earnings upset

AKAM -9%... another post earnings sell off.

Overnight China action: There was talk of a $100bn Govt' fund to prop up equities, which sure helped turn the Shanghai comp' in the late afternoon, settling +3.4% @ 3789. Broadly... renewed downside remains due.. to the 3200/3000 zone. 2500 remains a valid capitulation low in early Oct'.

Doom chatter, Hunter with Roberts

As ever.. make of that.. .what you will.

Have a good Wednesday!

8.01am... re: TWTR...

Keep in mind the IPO price was $26 in Nov' 2013. The lowest level ever traded was $29.51 (May 7th 2014). Considering anticipated main market weakness into the early autumn, and the break to the 32s post earnings, further weakness to the IPO price looks probable.

8.48am.. Indexes cooling.. back to flat...   sp' 2093.  Regardless of the exact open though.... minor chop into the afternoon. Then things get dynamic.