Thursday, 30 July 2015

How will the month close?

It was a second day of gains for the US equity market, sp +15pts @ 2108. A more important issue though is how will the month close? Will there will be further upside.. with a sig' net weekly gain - making for another monthly close above the key 10MA (2067)... or will the market unravel into the weekend?


Dow, weekly1b


A monthly close under the 10MA on the sp'500 looks very difficult.. unless the market gets badly spooked by GDP data tomorrow.

re: Dow... despite the current net weekly gain of 1.0%, we did have a break of trend on Monday, and until the Dow is breaking new historic highs in the 18400s.. the bull maniacs can't get overly confident of the autumn.. and winter to come.

Looking ahead

Thursday will see Q2 GDP data, market is expecting growth of 2.9%, which to me seems overly optimistic.

Other data, weekly jobs.

Eyes still on the VIX

I remain (perhaps overly) focused on the VIX, but for me... that is where I believe the 'big money' might be made across the next few months.

VIX' weekly'2

With further weakness today, the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle saw a bearish cross on the weekly cycle.  I want to see the VIX pick back up by the Friday/monthly close into the 14s. That would negate the cross... and keep the original scenario intact.

Goodnight from London