Sunday 5 July 2015

5pm update - OXI OXI OXI OXI OXI

Good evening. The Greek people have rather clearly voted OXI ('NO') in the referendum, with around 61% of the electorate voting against ratifying the most recent Troika bailout offer. World capital markets are not going to be pleased at this little rebellion... Draghi, Merkel et al... will no doubt be particularly furious.




Summary

We have a rather interesting evening ahead... with the futures wheel set to spin up at 6pm EST.
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I had expected a Greek 'no' vote, but certainly not quite as clear cut as we have seen.

The implications for Greece, the ECB, and the broader EU are rather huge. This night.. and the coming week will be very entertaining, but the vote will probably set off a chain reaction across some years.
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As for the markets...

Considering the news.. I'd expect downside to at least the recent low of sp'2056.

Lets be clear though.. any price action under 2050 - breaking the 200dma of 2054, and there really isn't much other than empty air to the giant 2K threshold.
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Man of the night.. and arguably the year so far... Tsipras

Increasingly confident..against the Troika

Greek opposition leader Samaras has already quit in disgust... although I'd expect he'll be lurking in the background for some time.

As ever... comments are always welcome.

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*next update around 6.05pm.. once the initial futures have provided first market reaction.