Wednesday, 29 July 2015

2pm update - sunshine ahead of the Fed

US equities remain holding moderate gains.. having ramped from a Monday low of sp'2063 to 2105. From a pure cyclical perspective, the hourly cycles are arguably favouring the bears into the close. USD and the precious metals are broadly flat, whilst Oil has built very sig' gains of 3.0%... as inventories declined.



Awaiting some swings... but then.. market should pick a direction by 2.15pm.. and run with it into the close.. and probably into August.

... as for the sunshine... in London city

Dark clouds by end of day?

standing by...

2.01pm.  So.. no rate hike of course...   indexes choppy...  but really... the smaller hourly cycle is on the high side. Just who is going to want to buy at these levels.. and at this time?

2.05pm.. VIX trying to put in a spike floor from 12.31... almost a full 400bps from the Monday afternoon high... crazy.

2.06pm.... REVERSAL in progress.. from sp'2108.

... now a bizarre VIX flash print of 11.85.. but immediately rebounding... some 'games' being played in VIX land?

2.15pm.. chop chop... it remains the case... with the FOMC out of the way... from a pure cyclical perspective... we're due an equity down wave.. of some degree.

notable weakness: TWTR, -14.3%... in the $31s. Anyone think that ain't gonna be trading <30 soon?

2.21pm.. Equity bears just need to see VIX back in the 13s to offer some clarity of a near term floor. Won't take much to get that.. and there is plenty of time left today.

2.33pm.. Eyes on the VIX...

Seeking a daily close in the 13s.. above hourly 10MA.