Wednesday, 15 July 2015

1pm update - chop ahead of a fed book

US equities are increasingly choppy, ahead of the latest Fed Beige book (2pm). Hourly equity/VIX cycles continue to favour the bears. USD is holding gains, +0.5% in the DXY 97.10s, around upper resistance for what is a giant bull flag that stretches back to the mid March high of DXY 100.71. Metals/Oil are naturally under pressure.


UUP, daily1


*the strong dollar remains a key issue, and I'll likely cover that more after the close.

Suffice to add... if I'm right about DXY >100.. and eventually the 120s.... it bodes badly for the precious metals and Oil... along with their related stocks.

The market remains close to the earlier high of sp'2114. Only a daily close <2100 would offer some clarity that further downside is due tomorrow to the 2090/80 zone. Sustained action <2070 looks out of range for some weeks.

*I remain long VIX... seeking the 15s before the weekend. That does not seem an overly bold target, with the VIX having cooled from 20.05 to 12.81.

back at 2pm