Monday, 27 July 2015

12pm update - bears increasingly in control

Despite the usual micro up cycles, it should be clear to most that momentum is increasingly in favour of the equity bears. VIX is reflecting the underlying concern, set for a daily close in the 16s... with the 20s due on any break <sp'2050.


Dow, weekly'1b


*I will likely be frequently referring to chart 1b in the weeks ahead. The general H/S bearish price structure applies to the sp'500 too, but it is clearest in the Dow.

So... a few little bounces across the morning to washout some of the weaker bears, but broadly... market looks set to fall for the fifth consecutive day.

Considering the current swing in momentum, Tuesday looks set for lower levels... at least to the sp'2050 threshold. No doubt some will want to buy the recent floor of 2044, but I can't see that holding now.

Special note...

Regardless of any FOMC bounce, I will be looking to be short the market to sp'2000, and then sidestep an anticipated bounce to the 2050/75 zone. Frankly, things are lining up rather nicely for September.

VIX update from Mr T.

time for some tea.

12.21pm.. VIX holding close to the earlier high.. 15.80. A break into the 16s would be significant, and open up a close in the 16.60/17.00s... with sp'2050s.