Thursday 2 July 2015

10am update - opening gains

US equity indexes open higher, with a clear break of declining trend/resistance. Next upside target is the sp'2098/2101 gap zone, but seriously, who will not want to sell that level ahead of a holiday weekend... with the great uncertainty of a Greek referendum this Sunday?


sp'60min



VIX'60min


Summary

*opening reversal candle in the VIX... a slight problem for equity bulls.
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It is a pretty complex situation...

The underlying issue across today will be one of 'who wants to hold long across the holiday weekend?'. With the uncertainty of a Greek referendum... there will surely be some significant number of the rats who want OUT before the close.

In terms of upside.. there is a clear gap zone of 2098/2101.... and that is certainly viable by the close of today.

If by some miracle we're trading around 2095/2100 at the close of today, it'd arguably make for a bonus EXIT opportunity for the bull maniacs.

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Long day ahead...  but hey.... its almost the weekend :)

Yours truly is rather content on the sidelines... I really don't think the bears can look for any sustained significant downside until the mid August-October time frame. Until then... I'm even more cautious than normal.

I suppose I could go long INTC.. but not in the $30s... I'd only consider the low 29s.

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notable weakness, coal miners, BTU -7.7%... continued horror


10.01am Factory orders  -1.0%... pretty lousy.. nothing good there, and unlike the Govt' jobs data..  it is a far more reliable data point.



10.09am.. VIX turns positive.. .there is a clear gap of 17.25/18.25.. which would equate to the sp'2050s again.

Hmm.... traders twitchy into the weekend... 


10.15am.. From a pure MACD cycle perspective.. this is a lousy setup for the bulls into the weekly close. We're due a down cycle.

Again... who wants to hold long into the weekend?
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