Wednesday 1 July 2015

10am update - opening gains... vulnerable

US equities open with somewhat significant gains, however, until the bulls can break >sp'2085.. the market remains vulnerable.. not least with a long holiday weekend ahead when the Greeks are set to vote. USD is building gains of 0.6% in the DXY 96.00s. Metals are weak, Gold -$4, whilst Oil -1.7%.


sp'60min



vix'60min



Summary

Just so there is no misunderstanding...

Daily cycles (will highlight later).. are turning back upward... but.. there is no clear floor yet.

Unless the bulls can break >2085.. there is the threat of renewed weakness into the weekly/Thursday close.. as some of the rats will surely sell ahead of the Greek referendum.

To me.. going long after another foray into the sp'2050s would seem a far better idea... and not until after the holiday break. For now... I'm content to watch this nonsense... and remain awaiting Tsipras who is set to address the Greek nation at some point today.
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notable movers: FB +1.9%... with a contrast TWTR -1.3%.... probably one is being traded off the other.

coal miners, BTU -14%.. in the $1.80s.. a new historic low.. after a profits warning (Peabody is blaming the weather, and weak prices)

TVIX/UVXY, both lower by around -11%... as VIX is crushed into the big gap zone.

FAZ -4%.. as talk of higher rates.. is helping the financials.


10.01am.. ISM/PMI manufacturing.. both come in 'reasonable'.. certainly better than the recent run of recessionary Chicago PMIs.

sp'2082.... we're getting close to a breakout.......


10.27am.. awaiting EIA oil report... with Oil -1.9%

10.31am.. Net build of 2.4 million barrels... which is lousy considering its summer. 
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meanwhile.. sp' getting stuck.. sp'2079.. hourly cycle will be rolling over later today... offering weakness into the weekly close.


10.34am.. notable reversal underway.....

Tsipras is talking.. and he is upsetting the market.

*referendum going ahead.... still calling for a 'no' vote.