Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes
sp'500
A net weekly decline of a moderate -0.4% @ 2101. Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle ticked lower, and was negative for the fifth consecutive week. The lower weekly bol' will be in the 2060s next week, and right now, that is the most realistic 'best downside case' in the current cycle.
Best guess... sp'2060s, before another lunge higher in July. Whether the market can break new historic highs in some (certainly not all) indexes... is very difficult to say. Even if sp'2175/2200 by August, I will be looking for some sig' correction in Sept/Oct, before the 'madness' resumes into 2016.
Nasdaq comp'
The tech' saw a net weekly decline of -0.7%, but did manage a marginal new historic high of 5164. The broad trend remains bullish, despite a MACD cycle that ticked lower, and was negative for the fourth consecutive week. There is viable downside to the giant 5K threshold, best case is around 4800.
Dow
The mighty Dow saw a net weekly decline of just -0.4%. The Dow remains in a very tight trading range, with a ceiling of 18300s and a floor in the 17500s. A failure to hold above 17500 will open the door to the 16500/000 zone by late summer. From there...up up up.
NYSE comp'
The master index settled broadly flat around the 11K threshold. Equity bears need a break <10800 to offer hope of 10K by Sept/Oct. Sustained action <10K looks unlikely.
R2K
The second market leader settled lower by -0.4%, but achieved a marginal new historic high of 1296. First key support remains the 1200 threshold. Under no reasonable outlook does sustained action under the Oct' low of 1040 look possible
Trans
The 'old leader' continues to lag, with another sig' net weekly decline of -2.0%, with a new cycle low of 8227. The 8100/000 zone looks due in the near term, with secondary downside to the Oct' low of 7700 by late summer. Considering continuing low Oil prices (relative to summer 2014), the Transports are performing very badly indeed.
Summary
In the scheme of things, the broader market is still holding together very well. Most indexes remain within broad upward trends that stretch back to 2012/11. Only the Transports is offering any real sign of trouble
Looking ahead
Next week will be condensed, with a three day holiday weekend ahead. As ever, the monthly jobs data will be the key data point.
The Greek situation is set to remain an issue. It would seem there will be no Greek deal next week, with the Greek people set to vote in a referendum, which is scheduled for Sunday, July 5th.
M - Pending home sales
T - Case-Shiller HPI, Chicago PMI, Consumer con'
W - ADP jobs, PMI/ISM manu', construction spend'
T- weekly/monthly jobs, factory orders.
F- CLOSED
*Fed official Bullard is set to speak on Tuesday, and Mr Market will most certainly be listening to him for any comments on int' rates.. or the Greek situation.
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Back at the Monday open.