Friday 22 May 2015

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes closed moderately mixed, sp +5pts @ 2130 (intra high 2134). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.6% and -0.1% respectively. Near term outlook remains bullish into the holiday weekend, and more broadly.. into the next FOMC of June 17th.


sp'daily5



Trans



Summary

*Despite seeing the biggest gains today, the Trans remains notably weak.. with first resistance around 8750. Best guess though... Trans to eventually break higher.. having churned largely sideways since last November.
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The broader market remains very strong, as reflected in a VIX that can not even break/hold the low teens.

For the moment, there is simply little reason to consider shorting the main indexes, not least that it seems pretty clear the Fed won't be raising rates until the FOMC of Sept'17th.

Most should be starting to consider that the market could simply grind higher across the summer... into early Sept'.

*to be clear though, higher rates are exceptionally bullish for the financials.. and that would also bode well for the broader market into 2016. 

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a little more later...