China - Shanghai comp', daily
China, monthly
Summary
So.. a third day lower for the SSEC, and we're already in the 4100s... having recently peaked at 4488.
The psy' level of 4K looks set to be tested within the very near term. Any daily closes under that would open the door to much lower levels... back to the multi-year breakout zone of 3500/400s.
However, I do NOT expect 4K to be sustainably broken under in the current down wave. Indeed, there is a clear threat of a renewed up wave all the way to 5K before a significant correction this summer/early autumn.
*I had considered shorting China - via FXI this afternoon, but decided to refrain. The hourly cycle is offering the threat of a moderate wave higher.. before the down trend resumes next Mon/Tuesday.
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Looking ahead
Friday will center around the monthly jobs data. Market is expecting 220k net gains, with a headline jobless rate ticking a touch lower to 5.4%.
My guess... 206k... but I've low confidence in that... not least as the monthly data is very noisy.. and is often significantly revised anyway.
There is also Wholesale trade data at 10am... but most won't be concerned with that.
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Goodnight from London