Friday 15 May 2015

2pm update - the subdued VIX

Whilst equities continue in their minor OPEX chop... the VIX is naturally subdued, stuck in the mid 12s. It has to be asked, how high might the VIX reach this summer/autumn? Are the mid 20s all the equity bears are going to see - as has been the case since mid 2012, when the sp'500 was a mere 1266?


VIX, monthly



VIX'weekly


Summary

*with little to add on the indexes... I thought a look at a few VIX charts might interest some.
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Barring a little equity sell down <sp'2115 this afternoon, the VIX is set for a moderate net weekly decline.

It is highly notable that at the current rate, the VIX will see a MACD bullish cross on the weekly cycle around mid June.

For now, there seems little reason to be long VIX... at least until FOMC week of June'15th.


My best guess...

VIX to see at least the low 20s sometime in mid/late June - regardless of the FOMC decision. There seems 'reasonable' opportunity for a sig' retrace from the sp'2140/70 zone... at least to 2k... and if that is the case... VIX 30s would be hit.. if very... very briefly.
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back at 3pm...  on what is a quiet end to the week