Friday 8 May 2015

10am update - Friday morning bear massacre

With the monthly jobs data being considered as a Goldilocks number, the market is building significant gains, with the sp' already just 14pts (0.7%) shy of a new historic high. The 'old leader' Trans is set for an important break into the 8900s.


sp'60min



Trans, daily



Summary

*opening black fail candle for Gold... although right now, I've little interest in re-shorting it.

15min cycle.

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As for the broader market... any hopes of 2040s are now trashed. It'd seem we'll be breaking new historic highs in at least some indexes next week... with a fair chance of tagging the upper bollinger on the giant monthly cycle.. currently in the sp'2170s.

For now... I'm more than content to sit this madness out. On no basis will I try shorting this... not least for some minor intraday retrace back to 2100.. or a (very unlikely) 2090.

VIX is certainly reflecting the renewed confidence in market land... -12% in the 13s. The big 20 threshold continues to look out of range until at least the next FOMC of June 17th.
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Oil has seen a VERY sharp turn lower... from gains of almost 2%.. to -0.7%. Metals are reflecting that turn... to a moderate extent.

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For the bears out there...



Those running without short stops - assuming the rally continues into June.. are going to get ground to dust.
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