Monday 20 April 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +10pts, we're set to open at 2091. Equity bulls should be seeking a daily close >sp'2111 this week. Metals are weak, Gold -$6. Oil is -1.9%, but will certainly be prone to turning positive later today.


sp'daily5


Summary

... and another week at the worlds greatest rigged casino is set to begin.

re: China. The Friday AH futures were offering an opening Monday decline of around -5%. Instead, the Monday close was -1.6% @ 4217. The PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) cut the Bank Reserve Requirement Ratio by 100bps to 18.5%. That surprised many, and is a pretty major injection into the system.. somewhere in the region of $200bn.. and that doesn't take account of any multiplier effect.

So... far from a case of 'Monday doom'... China did fall, but it was nothing particularly significant - at least for China which has sporadic sharp drops.

It would seem there is a fair chance the Shanghai comp' will go to 5K first (or get pretty close).. before the next sig' retrace of 15/20%.

Whilst waiting for Game of Thrones yesterday.. I was in the mood to amuse myself...


The EU/Asia version of CNBC is very different to the cheer leading US one, and yes, I'll occasionally message them. 
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As for US equities... certainly, the bull maniacs should be desperate to see a net daily gain of at least 0.5%... in the sp'2090s today. If earnings continue to come in reasonable (inc. IBM later today), then we should be able to break above last weeks resistance of 2111. A marginal new historic high in the 2120/30s looks a given.

To me, the only issue is whether we keep climbing to the 2170/80s this summer, before the next opportunity of a sig' down wave.

*for the moment, I can't be short this madness, and am merely playing a few companies across earnings.

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Update from an especially loud Oscar


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Doomer chat, Hunter with Dent



No doubt, Dent's deflationary outlook on the precious metals will especially rile up the Gold bugs. As ever... make of that... what you will.
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Good wishes for the week ahead!