Monday 2 March 2015

Volatility remains very subdued

With equities breaking new historic highs, the VIX remained naturally very subdued, settling -2.2% @ 13.04 (intra high 13.90). Near term outlook offers the sp'2130s... which would likely equate to VIX in the 12/11s.


VIX'daily3


VIX'weekly


Summary

*I would not normally highlight the weekly cycle on a Monday. However, note the MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle.. it has never been lower since March 2012, and that was on the back of VIX 40s in Oct'2011.

Without question... the broader equity market is increasingly confident... confirmed by very regular new historic equity index highs.
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Little to add.

VIX remains under declining trend/resistance.

Even if there is a break <sp'2100 this week... by Thur/Friday, VIX will likely get stuck around 16/17. The 20s look well out of range on the next up cycle.
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more later... on the indexes