Monday 2 February 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are moderately higher, sp +6pts, we're set to open at 2000. Metals are starting a new month weak, Gold, -$9, with Silver -0.2%. Oil is battling to build upon the Friday gains, +3.5% in the $49s.


sp'daily5


sp'weekly2, rainbow


Summary

*awaiting a quartet of data this morning, notably ISM/PMI manu'
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Welcome to February! January was pretty crazy... with the SNB decoupling from the Euro fix, and the ECB announcing a QE-pomo program.... what 'wonders' are ahead for us this month?

We're set to start the month with a little bounce... could last just a few hours.... or maybe into tomorrow.

Recent price action is highly suggestive of a move down to the low sp'1900s within the next two trading weeks. I'm even seeing talk of a move to the Oct' low in the 1850/00 zone. I suppose the latter is possible, but I'd only put a 20% probability on it.

So... maybe we'll get a positive close today, but I don't think it will matter...the bears should be able to achieve a further....and more significant daily decline within the next 2 or 3 days...with a daily close under the 200dma in the 1970s.

*I will strongly consider picking up an index short position today/tomorrow

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Update from Oscar


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Chatter with Hunter... and the infamous Mannerino



As ever... make of that... what you will.
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Russian bears closeby

An interesting...and somewhat concerning story, see HERE

So... nuclear armed planes are being flown near my own capital... by bear bombers. Great... just great. What could possibly go wrong?

Good wishes for the trading week ahead