Saturday 22 November 2014

Weekend update - US weekly indexes

Most US equity indexes saw net weekly gains for the fifth consecutive week, ranging from +1.3% (NYSE Comp') +1.1% (SP'500), to -0.1% (R2K). Near term outlook are for the low sp'2100s, before the next opportunity of a retrace back to the giant sp'2000 threshold.


Lets take our regular look at six of the main US indexes

sp'500


A fifth consecutive net weekly gain for the sp'500, with a weekly gain of a respectable 1.1%.. having hit a new historic high of 2071. It has taken the sp'500 just 28 trading days to ramp 251pts... which makes for a disturbingly powerful gain of 13.8%.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle is positive for the second week, and could easily climb for another 2-3 weeks. The next fib' target is 2138, and that looks pretty easy to hit in Jan/Feb.

Considering the ongoing central bank action, the Oct'15th low of 1820 looks unattainable for a very..... very long time.


Nasdaq Comp'


The tech' gained 0.5% this week, settling at 4712....that is 420pts away from the March'2000 bubble top. That is clearly out of range for this year, but looks set to be hit in spring/early summer 2015.


Dow


The mighty Dow continues to push higher, gaining 175pts (1.0%) this week. The 18000s look viable within the next week or two. The next fib' level is 18974, more likely in March/April 2015.


NYSE Comp'


The master index achieved a significant 1.3% weekly gain, settling at 11025. There looks to be upside to the 11300s before year end.


R2K


The second market leader broke to 1184 on Friday morning, but cooled, settling the week net lower by -0.1%. Key upside target remains the spring/summer double top of 1212/13. Considering the broader market... the R2K looks set to break >1220, which will be a powerful signal of much greater upside in 2015.


Trans


The 'old leader ' Trans, broke a new high of 9128, with a net weekly gain of around 0.3%. The broader up trend continues, and Trans looks set to reach the giant 10k level early next year. The lower oil prices are really helping transportation stocks, and if Oil does continue to slip (my target for Q1 2015 remains $65/60 zone)... then Trans will indeed be trading in the 10000s.


Summary

So... a fifth week for the equity bulls, and there is ZERO sign of this market reversing. Only the R2K is a touch weak, but even that index is less than 4% away from breaking new historic highs.

With central banks continuing to attempt to juice asset prices, there is little reason to believe the current hyper-ramp from sp'1820 won't continue.

Right now, the only thing that could derail the rally is some sporadic geo-political event.. which by definition is impossible to predict.


Looking ahead

Next week is a short 3.5 day week...

Mon - PMI service sector
Tue - GDP (first revision), case-shiller HPI, consumer conf'
Wed - Durable goods, weekly jobs, pers' income/outlay, consumer sent', new/pending home sales,

Thursday - US market CLOSED for Thanksgiving
Friday - Chicago PMI data,  EARLY CLOSE at 1pm EST.
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Back on Monday :)