Wednesday 8 October 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little higher, sp +5pts, we're set to open at 1940. Metals are moderately higher, Gold +$6. Oil remains very weak, another 1% lower in the $87s. Equity bears should be able to contain any opening gains, before the 1920s at some point today.


sp'daily5


Summary

So... we're set to open higher, but after the Tuesday declines, a break below the sp'1926 low looks VERY likely today.

Indeed, many out there are now looking for a full test of the Aug' low of 1904. I'm not sure if we'll make it that low this week, but we should at least get into the 1915/10 zone.

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Update from an overly loud Oscar



Indeed, Mr C is starting to allude to a bigger cyclical change.... interesting huh? I realise some of you get real pissed that I dare highlight him, but he has been on the correct side for a good 5 years.

Something I've been looking for - from a number of people I follow, is the consideration that a bigger cycle turn is in.
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Bigger picture thoughts

As I noted in my overnight post, even the current down wave has been choppy, and inconsistent.. along with a subdued VIX. Since the key low in Oct'2011, that is indeed the sort of price action we've seen... but for the first time since then...the broader monthly cycles are effectively exhausted...and are rolling over.

R2K, leading the way lower


The R2K is 100% BROKEN, probably headed for the low 900s...I'm not sure if that would equate to sp'1750.. or 1650. Regardless.... would anyone dare suggest this is going to new highs before at least testing 1000... if not 900?

So... lets see how long it takes for the bulls to fail today.... a daily close in the 1920s seems very likely, along with VIX 18/19s.

Good wishes for Wednesday trading.
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9.06am... Indexes ALL turning red in pre-market.... we could be testing 1926 by 11am. Whether it holds on the first test... not important.

..watching CNBC.... borderline hilarious to see how some of them seem genuinely rattled after yesterdays declines.  I'm almost amazed they aren't crying, and demanding QE4 starting Nov'1st.