Thursday 9 October 2014

Daily Wrap

US indexes saw a very powerful reversal to the upside, swinging from a morning low of sp'1925, and settling +33pts @ 1968. The VIX confirmed the equity gains, -12.1% @ 15.04. Last line in the sand for the equity bears is the Monday morning high of sp'1977.


sp'daily5


VIX'daily3


Summary

Most notable today, the daily candles...

Bullish engulfing for the indexes.. and (appropriately), a bearish engulfing candle for the VIX.

Frankly, it bodes badly for the equity bears. The last line now is the Monday morning high of 1977. Any move >1977.. and it will once again be a case of 'bears fail.. bulls win'. For the serious 'bear money' still holding short... it makes for a very appropriate exit level.


Weekly cycle still red (just)

It is notable that the weekly 'rainbow' candle remains red.. despite today's powerful gains.


MACD (green bar histogram) is still ticking lower, but we're on the low side, and if bears can't hold below the Monday high of 1977, then a new multi-week up cycle will begin.... with first target upside to 2050 or so.
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Looking ahead

Jobless claims, wholesale trade... in the scheme of things... not much of significance.

There are no less than four Fed officials speaking tomorrow, and Mr Market will be listening, not least after today's FOMC minutes. ECB chief Draghi is due to appear on some panel with Fed vice chair Fisher at 11am.

*next QE is not until next Tuesday
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Goodnight from London