Wednesday 29 October 2014

3pm update - post QE weakness

US equities have seen some moderate weakness, along with a VIX that spiked +11% into the low 16s. The smaller 5/15min index cycles though, are warning of a very viable wave higher to re-test this mornings high of 1991.... early tomorrow.


sp'15min


Summary

To be clear... I remain a watcher...

Best guess.. a micro double top of sp'1990/91.. early tomorrow... which will make for a great short entry.. since there should be a lot of divergences all over the place.

With the Fed out of the way.. and QE concluded... the bears have a very good setup.
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Metals remain very weak. Gold -$14.. which is destroying the miners.. the ETF of GDX -3.1% in the 19s.... on its way to the $15s... along with Gold $1000.

GDX, daily


... carnage... 19.70s...
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3.17pm.. Miners continue to feel the pressure of falling metals. .. GDX -4.4%.

Equities still look VERY vulnerable to another up wave to 1990 tomorrow morning. especially if Mr Market decides the GDP data is acceptable.


3.26pm.. chop chop... sp'1975.. with VIX 15.30s....

A daily close of 1980.. with VIX 14s.. seems very viable...

Overall.. today is good... QE is over... and now its a case of finding a reasonably entry.. and shorting down to 1920s. Whether we can break <1900.. .that will remain the ultimate question into early November.


3.45pm... sp'1984 ..... right on schedule....

Double micro-top of 1990... early tomorrow... then I'm shorting this market... with some high confidence.

.. back at the close.