sp'15min
Summary
I have little interest in chasing any initial drop on the FOMC.
Best guess... some kind of rally.. back to 1990 or so... maybe a micro double top of 1991.. and then lower... into the Friday close.
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So.. as things are... I don't expect to hit any buttons until at least 2.30pm.. maybe not even today. After all, whats the hurry?
It will only be on a break of sp'1900 that the bigger picture is re-confirmed.
Updates across remainder of the day...
2.01pm.. QE3 concludes...
Eyes on the VIX... which is rapidly cooling back lower....
Seeking a test of the morning high of sp'1991.
2.04pm.. Twitchy VIX... +6%.. then +11%....
Still. . the smaller 5/15min equity cycles look highly vulnerable to another wave higher.
I ain't chasing this lower...
2.08pm... Equities still sliding, there is an obvious gap around 1962 or so... that is viable.. but frankly.. I've seen this situation before.. and it doesn't usually work out for the bears by the close.
Regardless... QE is indeed over... at least for some months.... Mr Market has to go it alone... into early next year.
USD +0.5%... and that is pressuring the metals. Gold -$10.. .with GDX -2.0%.. set to lose the $20s
2.18pm... USD continues to climb...pressuring all US asset classes... Gold -$12...
The miner ETF of GDX loses the $20 handle.... a post 2009 low.
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Next support.. sp'1965/60 zone.. where there is a gap.. I'd be real surprised if we close under that.
Anyway.. King Dollar remains KING..... helped with the end of QE.
2.22pm... chop chop.. in the low sp'1970s... with VIX 16s.
Overall.. interesting weakness, but from a pure cyclical perspective.. we're due another up wave.
With the Fed out of the way.. I'll merely look to short the next minor up cycle... more likely early tomorrow.
Notable weakness: GDX -2.5% @ $20.. having lost the 20s.. just earlier.
2.27pm market looking floored...
sp'15min
Bears highly vulnerable right now.
*I'm seeking a short from a viable double top of 1990/91
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2.37pm.. Bull maniacs pushing back.. sp'1980... VIX cooling.
Best guess... micro double top of 1990.... whether late today or tomorrow...
For me.. that will be a very reasonable short level... considering everything.
Metals remain weak, Gold -$14. Miners destroyed... GDX -2.9%