Wednesday 1 October 2014

2pm update - interesting day

US equities continue to slide, and the equity bulls appear entirely unwilling to 'buy the dip'. VIX is still largely failing to reflect the weakness, higher by just 5%. In theory, at the current rate of decline, the market could be in the 1910s by late Friday.


sp'daily5


Summary

Considering the current price action, there now seems zero sense in going long...even for a short term bounce...overly risky.

The one key problem remains the VIX. Even though I'm not short, it is annoying to see the VIX not +15% or so... and failing to confirm the equity declines.

...the following remains 'best bear case....

sp'weekly7a


For now.. it is a mere 'hope'... and is ENTIRELY dependent on the 1920/00 zone being hit..no later than end of next week.
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Stay tuned!


2.12pm.. Equity bears could do with a close in around 1940 to really cause some problems for the rest of the week.

VIX still failing to confirm the equity weakness... only +5%... hmmm


2.26pm.. It is the typical turn time... but... with the break into the mid 1940s... no point in trying to play a bounce here...

.. but neither will I short.

I suppose some could laugh at that.... but still, at least I'm not getting nailed today.
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Frankly.. best case.... long from 1920/00....     and short from 1970/90....

Those would be trade levels I would be completely fine.

For now...lets see if the bears can push lower... with 90mins to go.

Notable weakness; TWTR -4%, FB -3.3%...  all the momo stocks getting hit pretty hard.