Wednesday 15 October 2014

1pm update - new equity lows

The late morning bounce from sp'1837 to 1866 has been entirely negated, and we're breaking new lows... confirmed via new highs in the VIX of 28.32. It remains a deeply shaky market, and there appears threat of some kind of major capitulation sell off.


sp'60min



vix'daily3


Summary

Without question, the VIX is the most notable issue, having broken to levels not seen since late 2011. Volatility is back... and is likely here to stay for some months, as we battle lower to the sp'1600s... effectively a giant wave lower in the style of summer 2011.
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*Market is understandably increasingly concerned with Ebola.. and the periodic press conferences from the CDC are not helping sentiment.

Airlines are naturally battered, DAL -4%, UAL -5%
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Update from Riley


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stay tuned
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1.18pm... Looking at the broader weekly cycle, there is a lot of price cluster around sp'1820/10 zone... so... I could agree with Hawke on his ES target of 1809.

Regardless, for now... this is real messy.  VIX 29s.....


1.21pm... Dow -412...    VIX 30s look imminent.... wow....

Typical turn is 2.30pm (as ever), but really, a capitulation sell off this afternoon looks in progress.


1.30pm... Capitulation sell off...  VIX 31s....     ZERO sign of a turn.. bears probably have another hour at least.   sp'1822....