Tuesday 30 September 2014

10am update - opening VIX reversal

Equity indexes open a touch higher, but the VIX saw a rather classic opening reversal candle.. and has turned positive. Metals have turned around, Gold +$2 (from -$10)... whilst the USD holds gains of 0.4%.


VIX'60min



GLD, daily


Summary

*Chicago PMI: 60.5... vs 62 expected (64 previous).. a somewhat poor number for the bulls.
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For the equity bears out there.. the targets are pretty clear...

Need a daily close in the low sp'1960s..with VIX 17s.... seems overly difficult..considering yesterdays strong bounce.
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As for the metals, could easily see a bounce - with broader market weakness, but it makes no difference.. Gold is still headed for $1000/900s.


10.01am.. Consumer confidence... 86... another miss.. market was looking for 90s.

Indexes sliding...but VIX is not showing any upside kick....yet.


10.06am.. I'm getting tired of this nonsense...

tight stop on my SPY put block (from last Friday).. will probably get the kick in a minute.


10.08am.  EXITED short-index block.. from sp'1972 (was short from 1978) .. minor gain, but at least its not a loss.


10.10am.. VIX starting to cool.. and really, a gain of 1% is just not good enough.


10.14am spike-floor hourly candle on the indexes.... doesn't look good for those in bear land now. VIX set to turn negative.
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10.20am.. As I feared....indexes turning... green..... VIX red...

A lousy end to Q3 for the bears.


10.32am  Just where is the downside power going to come from? Bears had their chance..and once again...FAILED.

*I remain content on the sidelines for the rest of today, am not particularly in the mood to be long... at least today.