Friday 8 August 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures have swung higher from overnight lows (sp -17pts, 1892), we're set to open a touch higher, +3pts @ 1912. Metals are similarly moderately higher, Gold +$4. Equity bulls should be desperate to hold the sp'1900 threshold.


sp'60min


Summary

*as for the count on the hourly chart.. I only have 'moderate' confidence in it. Cyclically speaking, we're due an up wave.. to the 1960s. As ever though, geo-pol issues can invalidate any 'natural waves'. 
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... so, I go to sleep to a red screen.. and 7 hours later......I awaken to moderately green.

For me, this market is starting to get real messy, and I'm starting to get rattled.
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Update from Mr C



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For those of you who are in a particularly doomster mood... here is Hunter, with an end week report on all the geo-pol issues.



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Best guess on today?

Purely on a cyclical basis, we're due to push back upward... but many seem resigned to the sp'1880s.. or even the 60s - where the 200 day MA is.

Personally, I'm starting to wonder - not least when I reflect upon the monthly cycles, if there is any real chance the bulls can break >1991 in the rest of the year.

Good wishes for Friday trading.


8.37am.. sp +6pts @ 1915... but as noted yesterday, until we're back in the 1930s, bulls have little to be confident about.

Those who think the sp'1880s .. or lower are due, should be seeking VIX >17.60 this morning.


9.49am.. opening equity gains, but its looking a real mess....somewhat understandably, some will be shorting this opening micro bounce.