Saturday 2 August 2014

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed the week having broken new cycle lows of sp'1916, but settling -5pts @ 1925. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.2% and -0.5% respectively. Near term outlook offers a bounce to 1955/65 zone, along with VIX 14/13s.


sp'daily5


R2K


Trans


Summary

The break on Thursday really has changed almost everything. Not only was the price action of Thursday - with some follow through on Friday, the most bearish since early February, but the bigger weekly/monthly cycles are also starting to turn somewhat ugly.

The Dow is within easy range of its 200dma, whilst the R2K is just 3% from breaking the critical 1080 threshold.

A 2-3 day bounce looks likely next week, and if the bulls can't push back into the 1970s....then we'll see another wave lower... likely <1900 by mid August.

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Closing update from Riley

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a little more later...