Tuesday 5 August 2014

3pm update - weakness into the close

US equities remain weak, sp' looks set for a daily close in the 1916/12 zone... with VIX in the low 17s. Metals have turned positive, Gold +$3, whilst Oil remains significantly lower, -1.1%.


sp'15min


Summary

So...the closing hour....

If my nano scale count is right..we'll see another new low broken into the close...

I'd consider going long-index, tomorrow.. 11am or so.
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*special note... equity bears need to be especially careful if the Dow breaks the 200 dma. It did it before in early February... and we remember how that ended..yes?


...1000pts.. across the following 5 weeks.
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3.10pm.. VIX still notably below the recent high...something I really would like to see hold.


Certainly...a fair few have finally woken up with this afternoons further declines.


3.25pm.. minor chop...still set to close with sig' declines.

Notable weakness: airlines, -3%...  Oil/Gas drillers RIG -3%


3.36pm.. would be surprised if we break >1925 today. Should still see a little lower.

3.42pm  minor chop.... a day for the bears... with VIX +10%