Friday, 15 August 2014

11am update - bulls need to hold 1944

Equities appear to have seen a morning peak of sp'1964, and we are seeing a micro snap lower - on a Ukrainian news story. Equity bulls just need to hold the sub'1 wave high of 1944. Metals remain very weak, Gold -$14.



Summary interesting reversal underway...due to a 'spooky' news story.

It would appear the Ukrainians have fired on some kind of incursion from Russia.

I've added a speculative count to the hourly chart. Bulls just need to hold within the channel..and >1944. Seems likely.

Regardless, I ain't shorting anything....and I will not be getting involved again until next Monday.

11.01am.. hourly index/VIX cycles now favour the bears...

If 1944 fails...then strap in...otherwise...its just a brief scare.

11.07am... No critical damage...yet.. but the news from Ukrainian is genuinely a major issue...and markets are justifiable spooked.

Who wants to hold long into the weekend now?

11.15am.. minor chop..and we're still holding the snap low...

For me, I wouldn't get remotely interested on the short side unless we broke <1900..and that sure doesn't look likely.

Anyway...interesting morning...long afternoon ahead.. as market looks to more updates on Ukraine.

11.25am... sp'1950... with VIX +9%...hmm

As an onlooker for rest of today... this is pretty fun to watch...

Obvious levels to break - for the doomer bears.... VIX 17.50... with sp'1904

11.39am.. Notable weakness in the R2K -0.5%...after being +0.9% in pre-market.

Bearish engulfing candle....bearish for the broader market next Monday.

11.47am.. considering the news.. it never fails to surprise me that we're only -0.3%. 

VIX trying to surge... +11%... 13.80s...there is a big price gap in the mid 15s