Tuesday 5 August 2014

10am update - opening weakness

US indexes open moderately lower, and market looks set to break a marginally lower low in the sp'1910/00 zone.. tomorrow..or Thursday. VIX is pushing back upward.. but its possible it will fail to break the 17.50s in this new up wave.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

So... an ABC wave'4 complete.

In theory.. a fifth should result in at least a marginally lower low <1916.... tomorrow..or early Thursday.
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I realise some will be looking for far lower levels (mid/low 1800s), but I just can't see that happening.


10.05am.. a little weakness, and the bears are appearing again...

*as things are, I'll look to pick up an index-long around 1915/00. Timing as ever...is somewhat tricky.


10.20am.. nana bear flag setting up...

I'd be VERY surprised if we break yesterdays high of 1942... today..or even tomorrow.

For the pro traders out there..its a rather simple trading stop.
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VIX.. as expected..despite sp-11pts earlier..not showing much concern..and the 17.50s should hold this week.


10.35am.. Any break >1942.. and sub'4 outlook is dropped.

So...bears better hold the line around here.. or we're going to the 1960s instead.

R2K +0.2%... with a red VIX.      Hmmmm

Hey, at least its not boring, right?