Thursday 31 July 2014

11am update - rough morning for the bulls

US indexes have continued to slip, with significant declines, sp -1.2%, having taken out the July 10'th low, along with the 50 dma. Metals are weak, Gold -$10. VIX is building gains, +12% in the low 15s.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

*a fair bit of technical damage done this morning, including to the bigger weekly cycles, which I will highlight later.
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Today sure is a messy end to the month. As things are... we're now at a typical turn time... but so far.. there is ZERO sign of the declines levelling out.

I realise there are a fair few individual issues - not least the Argentinian 'technical default', but still...the break under 1950 is a real surprise.

We're set for the first monthly net decline since January.


11.07am.. market attempting a spike floor from sp'1942... at what is a typical turn time.

Bears...beware!     VIX cooling .. a touch... but it did take out the July'17 geo-pol (plane/Israel) spike.


11.13am.. RSI is 73 on the VIX hourly.... it rarely stays that high for long.

I realise I said it yesterday, but I merely see this as another opportunity for the bears to close out.

I sure am curious to see what others make of this....  I'm trying to refrain from clown finance TV though..and Zerohedge. I'm guessing ZH have gone into emotional euphoria at this 'catastrophic market collapse' .... yes?


11.26am.. all indexes.. and the VIX offering a TINY sign of a turn.... on any basis... anyone short... should be careful here.

How many times in the past few years have we seen a big down Thursday...and then a crazy ramp on Friday?  I can think of at least a dozen or so occasions.