Tuesday 13 May 2014

Volatility fractionally lower

With new historic index highs, the VIX struggled across the day, settling -0.8% @ 12.13. Near term outlook is for sp'1910/20s, which will likely keep the VIX pinned in the 12/11s. The VIX looks unlikely to break into the 20s until at least mid June.


VIX'daily3


Summary

VIX remains low, and barring some sporadic 'scary news story', the market looks comfortably bullish, with another 1-3% of easy upside in the main indexes.

I should note the contracting bollinger bands on the daily cycle, a few more weeks..and the VIX will spike again, but again, even the high teens look a tough target to hit.

Personally, I will try to refrain from picking up a VIX call block (probably Oct' 20 strike), until early June.
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more later..on the indexes