Thursday 8 May 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +1pt, we're set to open at 1879/80. Metals are mixed, Gold +$5, whilst Silver is flat. Equity bulls should push for a second daily gain on the Dow/SP/Trans, with new historic highs within reach.


sp'daily5


Summary

So...this morning is set for a near repeat, with Yellen likely to spout the same comments to the US senate, as she did to the US congress. I'd have to guess the Senators will be more softer on her than the Congress, but hey, maybe I'm wrong on that?
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Equity bulls could do with a weekly close in the 1890s, which should bring the 1900s within range for next week. In terms of the Dow...bulls should be looking for 16600s for the Friday close...



No shorts until June?

As I noted in last nights closing post, the problem the bears face, weekly MACD cycle is due to go positive cycle..but probably not for another 2-3 weeks (for sp'500). The current rally - from sp'1814, looks likely to be drawn out for at least another month.

I'm already a little itchy to pick up a super long dated VIX call block..Sept/Oct 20/25 strike, but there doesn't seem much point in that. If I wait another month, the calls will likely be 10/20% cheaper. There seems no reason to be in a hurry to re-short this market.
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Long day ahead.... with Yellen due to start around 10am.
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9.36am... EXITED SDRL.... very nice gain ...

seeking to drop RIG....and some others..

9.37am  EXITED RIG


9.41am... Well, I feel a bit lighter with those monster positions dropped...

Still holding... CHK, DO, and STX..although the latter is a really busted up a long.
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Market still set to battle higher....no downside power..is there?