Wednesday 9 April 2014

Weekly charts remain ugly

Despite moderate index gains, the equity bears continue to inflict significant technical damage to the market. With the sp' taking out the recent 1842 low, along with the 50 day MA, price momentum continues to swing towards the bearish side.


sp'weekly7


Dow, weekly


Summary

*Indeed, equity bears should seek a weekly close <1838.
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The above chart lacks the 'best case summer doom' of weekly7b, but still, the bears do have some things to tout today, most notably - the break into the 1830s.

We have the second consecutive blue candle, and this morning, as the 50 day MA was broken, the weekly 'rainbow' candle turned...red.  A closing red candle this week -in my view, would really open the door to the 1770s next week.

A hit of the lower weekly bollinger would give a strong initial confirmation of weakness into the late spring/summer. Primary downside target remains sp'1625/1575..before another hyper wave to the upside.


Video update from Gordon T Long, With Charles Hugh Smith



As ever, for those interested in the bigger macro picture, well worth giving some time to.
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Looking ahead

Tomorrow will be all about the FOMC minutes, due at 2pm.

*next sig' QE-pomo is not until Thursday.
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I remain on the sidelines, and will consider an index re-short/ VIX long, on any continued bounce. If the market can't rally hard on the Fed press release...a reversal will be likely - not that it is absolutely necessary tomorrow afternoon.

Goodnight from London