Thursday 24 April 2014

Closing Brief

US indexes saw some notable chop, opening gains failed, but a swift reversal never saw any follow through. The sp' settled +3pts @ 1878. The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled -0.4% and -0.2% respectively. Near term outlook is bullish into next Wednesday's FOMC.


sp'60min


Summary

*it was a good day for yours truly. A good early exit in FCX, my secondary long of RIG is already considerably higher. The only error was seeing an SLV short reverse from the open, which I should have bailed on.

I picked up a replacement long position in the closing hour, CHK, from the 29.20s. I am seeking an initial exit in the 30/31 zone next week.
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So..opening gains, a reversal, but..once again, the equity bears just lack the downside power...and the support zone of 1875/70 most certainly is an important zone.

Right now, the notion of <1850 looks completely out of range, and indeed, I'm seeking a break into the 1900s within the next few trading days.

The big unknown is how will the market cope with QE-taper'4 next Wednesday? Will it be key turn lower, some 'mixed chop', or just keep on climbing across much of May?

Regardless, I can't consider shorting the indexes until at least next Wednesday afternoon, and even then, the weekly charts strongly argue against such a trade.
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more later..on the VIX