Tuesday 8 April 2014

2pm update - a bounce, or new multi week up wave?

The ultimate question right now is whether the morning low is a key low, or whether this is just a bounce.. to be shorted. The bears has been teased so many times since Oct'2011, I am perhaps understandably 'cautious' right now. VIX sure hasn't shown any real concern in recent days.


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

*yeah, I fell asleep..earlier...hence the delayed hourly post...
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I'm going to hold to the original outlook, and will call this a bounce.

Bears have achieved the two key signs I wanted to see...

1. a break under the weekly 10MA..<1849
2. a break of the 50 day MA, <1839.

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We have the FOMC minutes due tomorrow at 2pm. Its the only notable planned news of the week. A bounce into that..seems..viable.

My only concern remains the next sig' QEs of Thurs/Friday.

As things are...I will still consider an index short tomorrow...somewhere in the sp'1865/75 zone.

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*as I type, a reasonably 'semi-normal guest' on clown finance TV, is talking about market 'headed for the 200 day MA at sp'1769'....which is pretty interesting to hear.


2.14pm.. for those watching the hourly charts... upper bollinger is starting to collapse... will be around 1875 tomorrow morning...that IS the wall.


2.40pm.. minor down wave...sp'1848... but we're a clear 11pts above the morning low.

Call it a sub'B. . 2... or whatever... we ain't likely closing red.