Thursday 27 March 2014

Volatility remains very low

Despite the US indexes breaking into the low sp'1840s, the VIX never really showed much kick, and failed to surpass the FOMC peak of 15.95 - when sp' was 1850. The VIX settled -2.1% @ 14.62. Near term outlook is for a VIX climb to the 17/18 zone, with sp'1800/1790s.


vix'60min


vix'daily3


Summary

It remains bizarre how the market remains so utterly fearless. I could list dozens of reasons why the VIX should be in the 20s (if not the 30s)..but as ever..the market is..what it is.

For now...the market is not likely to be spooked, unless it breaks the sp'1834 low. However, my guess is that it will fail to hold that low..and will then proceed swiftly lower to the 1800/1790s.

Whether that is enough to cause the VIX to hit the big 20 threshold..difficult to say.
--

more later...on the indexes