Wednesday 19 March 2014

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a touch higher, sp +2pts, we're set to open at 1874. Equity bears need to hold the line around 1875, or the H/S scenario should get dropped. Metals are weak, Gold -$9. Today's market close should give clarity on where we are headed into early April.


sp'60min1c


Summary

So..we're going to open right on the threshold, and I sure can't be the only one considering this scenario. No doubt the algo-bots are sure aware of it!

Clearly, if we see new highs in the Trans/R2K, that will be a primary reason to drop any downside outlook, and instead look to the sp'1900s. We'll know soon enough.
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Best guess...1875 holds..and we'll trundle lower in late morning to 1865...before a spike back to 1870/75 on the announcement at 2pm....

..and then down we go..sub '1800 within 3-5 trading days.
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Morning doom from Hunter and Orlov




Interesting to hear from Orlov, although I realise some will dismiss much of what he has to say. 
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I will remain a watcher until 2.05/2.10pm.. and see how the price action is then. As it is, unlike the last FOMC, the cycles are lined up for the bears.

Good wishes for fed day!
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9.38am.. minor down cycle...no one wants to buy >1875...do they?

First support 1865...a break <1860 seems highly unlikely ahead of the FOMC.