Good morning. Futures are lower (although not significantly), sp -14pts, we're set to open at 1845. Precious metals are sharply higher, Gold is +$22, with Silver +1.5%. Miners are benefiting, GDX +2.6%. Oil and Gas are both higher on the Crimea concerns, both by around 2.5%
Welcome to March!
So, we're going to open lower..but the real question is...is this the start of something major...or just another reversal coming?
Best guess...a reversal..whether this morning, later today..or as the week progresses.
Those bears holding (bravely) short across the weekend are getting a prime opportunity to tighten trading stops. If market does reverse..at least they'll likely guarantee some degree of profit. It would be pretty damn stupid to see some good profits turn into sig' losses by this Friday..yes?
Update from Mr Carboni
Good wishes for today..and the month! Spring is coming :)
Ohh, and I've even mentioned we have sig QE-pomo today, along with some econ-data..but you read my weekend report anyway...right?
8.35am.. ooh lookie...CNBC rolls out Buffett this morning...and naturally..Ms. Quick is there with him.
sp -17pts.. 1842.... still.. that is barely significant.
8.40am... I was thinking about the VIX....best guess...we open +15%...to the low 16s.
However, again, I have to note..equity bears need to be VERY careful here about a reversal, especially around the typical turn time of 11am.
Beware of black-fail candles on the daily/hourly VIX chart this morning!
Best guess... sp' floors in the 1840/35 zone...with VIX 16s.
9.20am.. so.....we're set to open sp -14pts...to the low 1840s..and VIX +12/15%.
I remain VERY concerned at a likely reversal this morning.
There just isn't much downside power (still)...and with QE of $2-3bn...bears......beware!
9.32am...okay people.... VIX +17% in the low 16s...
Watching for a reversal here!
*I'm looking at the bollinger bands..weekly/monthly charts...more on that later though.
The trading range for the spring is starting to be come a little clearer.
VIX, black-fail candle in the GAP zone...low 16s.
I think that is probably it.
9.38am.... black candle on the VIX....indexes are lower, but holding broad support, including the daily 10MA.
9.40am.. we're only 10mins in..and the VIX is -5% from the opening gap.