Saturday 29 March 2014

Daily Index Cycle update

US indexes closed somewhat weak after opening gains, sp +8pts @ 1857 (intraday high 1866). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled +0.5% and u/c respectively. Near term outlook remains a break <1830, which will open up a swift down move to the 1800/1790 zone.


sp'daily5


R2K


Trans


Summary

The weakness in the two leaders remain good an important warning of trouble for the broader market. The general weakness does bode for a break <sp'1830 next week, which should open up a further 2-3% downside.

Just look at the Transports, see all the little spikes into the 7600s, but the market just can't break higher. Yes, there is trend support around 7300, but were that to fail, then a full retrace of the Feb/March rally could occur... back to 7000.

Underlying MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle remains strongly negative on all indexes, and it'd be surprising if we don't eventually break <1830, which should result in a large one day 'washout' move of sp -30/40pts.
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a little more later...