Thursday 20 March 2014

3pm update - an important daily close

US equities have built borderline significant gains, with the sp' holding the 1870s. Any daily close >1875 will no doubt trigger new buying interest, whilst a failure will open up a swift reversal, breaking the Wednesday low of 1850.


sp'15min


VIX'60min


Summary

*most bearish aspect right now? That'd be the transports, -0.2% on the day.
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Well, the closing hour...lets see how it goes....

Based on the previous few days, the 1875 line should still hold, but it remains so borderline, I can barely look!

I suppose if Mr Market wanted to cause maximum damage, it'd break into the 1876/83 zone, only to then reverse.
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Anyway, I will hold overnight short.

*Quad-opex tomorrow, will likely be pretty choppy, and for the bears...there is at least no sig' QE-pomo to be concerned about.

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Right now, best case for the bears..a daily close of 1866/64, with VIX 15s. That'd still be a net daily gain for most indexes, but hell, at least it'd still keep the broader scenario intact.


3.07pm. VIX wants the 15s....bulls..beware!


3.15pm... bulls lose the 1870s...and VIX ..is back to 15s....

Holding to best case target...


3.30pm... bull rats are getting a little twitchy...VIX 15.05...  15.30 would be..useful.

3.45pm... urghh..back to the 1870s again...tiresome!

Again, the one notable aspect of today...Transports.. -0.2%, but aside from that, today was much like Tue/Wed, in testing the 1870/75 zone.

back at the close