Thursday 13 March 2014

12pm update - still no significant downside power

US equities are moderately lower, with the sp'500 still holding above the Wednesday low of 1854. What remains clear more than anything, equity bears still lack any significant downside power, and further upside into the FOMC seems likely.


sp'weekly'8


Summary

*I'm tired of seeing many get wrapped up in the minor nonsense. Seriously, why are so many getting overly excited at index moves of +0.25%, and then -0.25% ?
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So..for this hour, I'll merely highlight the bigger weekly chart, which continues to hold an outright bullish trend - but clearly, we're close to the viable ceiling, upper bol' @ 1880.

*threshold for green/blue candle on the weekly is currently 1862/63.
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There are quite a lot of dynamic moves in individual stocks today...not least the PLUG, which continues to attract many hysteria chasing 'bargain hunters'.

Other notable movers..

AMZN +2.5%, despite the 'prime' concerns.
DRYS, back to flat, after early gains of 2.5%, the third day below the 50 day MA.
RIG -3.5%, and continuing to slide week over week.
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VIX update from Mr T.



Indeed...there is some interest in building VIX upside positions for April/May.
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time for tea :)


12.25pm.. sp'1856... A test of the old high..now support @ 1850...viable...but still...this ain't sig' downside.

In many ways..for bears on the sidelines - waiting to launch a re-short this spring, this is EXACTLY the sort of price action we should be looking for.


12.30pm... were we to hit 1834..and then bounce...now that would offer a real interesting scenario..but regardless....I ain't excited about any of this. 


12.38pm.. ..there goes the Wed' low of 1854....so..next up..1850...and best bear case.. 1834.

For those who did short the opening gains...congrats...thats a pretty reasonable 20pt swing.