Thursday 13 February 2014

Upside targets for March

With sp'1737 appearing to be a rather secure short term floor, the question is how high might Mr Market be able to claw across next month? New historic highs seem reasonably viable - to the sp'1880/1920 zone. QE-taper'3 - at the FOMC of March'19th, will be the next problem for the market to deal with.


sp'daily3b


Summary

Considering the recent price action, it does look like 1737 is a key floor. I realise some will disagree with that. Personally, unless we break <1770, any hopes of a new multi-week low will remain on hold for another few months.
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re: daily3b. I realise any count is highly subjective, but hey, a simple extrapolation is suggestive of the upper 1800s in March/April..possibly the low 1900s - as a number of notable chartists have been suggesting.


Yet another H/S idea

These H/S scenarios sure haven't worked out so well in the past few years (aside from summer 2011), but here is another one..assuming a multi-month top around late March/early April.

sp'weekly7c


It is an appealing scenario, not least with downside from the 1875/1925 zone...down to 1625/1575 across just a few months.
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Looking ahead

We have a trio of econ-data, jobless claims, business invent', and retail sales.

Yellen was due to speak to the US senate, but that has been postponed, probably for some weeks.

*there is no sig' QE-pomo until next Tuesday
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Goodnight from London