Wednesday 5 February 2014

1pm update - VIX and the weekly 200 MA

As some have noticed, the VIX has tended to get stuck..and fail, at the weekly 200 MA, currently in the mid 19s. Equity bears seeking much lower levels this spring/summer, should be seeking a weekly close above this 200 MA..which would be the first time since Dec'2012.


VIX'weekly


Summary

*minor moves in the market, I'm sticking to the bigger charts for now.
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For the bears, the good thing is that we have already broken the 'lower peaks' trend, and we have of course broken into the 20s, for the first time since last October.

Best guess...sp'1710/1690, which should equate to VIX 22/23..possibly 25/27. The high will be dependent upon the style of price action, not so much the sp' level itself.
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TWTR earnings at the close..that will be one to watch.
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UGAZ, -5%, after being up around 20/25% in pre-market


Certainly a wild day for gas traders, with the EIA gas report due tomorrow morning.
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1.08pm. there is a secondary QE this afternoon of around $2-3bn..but after this past this afternoon...bears should be in full control for the remainder of the week..with nothing to fear.


1.35pm.. minor chop....no excuses here...everyone is getting the chance to re-position, before the next wave hits.